Why Trumpcare Failed
The simple answer to why Trumpcare failed is that Republicans allowed themselves to talk about a GOP bill in Democratic terms. Republicans are for the free market, and an unfortunate side effect of the free market is that there are always going to be winners and losers. Republicans in Congress attempted to pass a bill in line with GOP principals, but got bogged down on their talking points.
According to the GOP, healthcare is not a right, but what they came to realize is that even the Republican base does not want to lose access to their health insurance. In the free market less people will be insured. If Republicans in Congress were not afraid of acknowledging this, their bill may have had more support from within their own base. Instead, they chose to falsely claim that Trumpcare would insure as many people as Obamacare and wound up coming across as disingenuous.
Less people would be insured under Trumpcare for a variety of reasons. Healthcare premiums will continue to rise, and by getting rid of the mandate which forces healthy people to buy into the system, there would be no way in which to offset the costs for sick individuals. Republicans were pressured to keep the things that people loved about Obamacare, coverage for preexisting conditions being a prime example, while simultaneously getting rid of everything put in place to pay for them. The mandate was just one part of how Obamacare was designed to pay for itself, but this bill would also freeze Medicaid expansion and cut the taxes imposed on more wealthy individuals. This leads to an unsustainable bill which covers less people, at a higher cost, and comes across like a tax cut for the wealthy.
Obamacare is far from a perfect bill, but it is a step in the right direction. Despite what Republicans say, they do have the votes to repeal Obamacare outright. According to the Washington Post, between 2011 and 2014 the House voted 54 times to repeal or amend Obamacare, some of which passed a majority in the House, but were never considered in the Senate. Republicans have spent the past two election cycles promising to repeal Obamacare, but now that they are finally in the position to keep campaign promises have come face-to-face with the uncomfortable fact that the people who supported them on this issue actually enjoy having healthcare coverage. The Republicans in Congress have had years to work on a plan to replace Obamacare, but rather than a shining piece of legislation, with years of thought and preparation put into it, all they could come up with was a terrible bill which is rightfully dead in the water.
By failing to enact on their number one campaign promise Paul Ryan and the GOP have taken a major hit in public opinion. Trump supporters will blame Ryan for putting forward a poor plan and Ryan supporters will blame Trump’s lack of deal making abilities and inability to bring support from across the aisle. The fracturing of the party between establishment conservatives and Trump populists will continue to hamper any progress made by this administration. What the Republican members of Congress do from here will seemingly have large implications on the next election cycle to come.
